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Journal of the American Geriatrics Society

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Journal of the American Geriatrics Society's content profile, based on 12 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Prediabetes and glycemic transitions as determinants of frailty and functional decline in adults aged 50 years and older: A longitudinal analysis from five multinational aging cohorts

Malagon-Liceaga, A.; Basile-Alvarez, M. R.; Fermin-Martinez, C. A.; Ramirez-Rivera, D. L.; Perezalonso Espinosa, J.; Diaz-Sanchez, J. P.; Garcia-Gonzalez, S. B.; Carrillo-Herrera, K. B.; Cabrera-Quintana, L. A.; Antonio-Villa, N. E.; Gomes-Goncalves, N.; Garcia-Pena, C.; Bello-Chavolla, O. Y.

2026-04-24 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351540 medRxiv
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Background: Prediabetes is highly prevalent in older adults and is characterized by heterogeneous clinical trajectories, including regression to normoglycemia and progression to diabetes. While prediabetes has been associated with impaired physical function and frailty, the longitudinal impact of both a single diagnosis and dynamic glycemic transitions on functional outcomes remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate associations between baseline prediabetes and glycemic transitions over time with trajectories of functional capacity and frailty in older adults. Methods: We conducted a pooled analysis of harmonized data from five nationally representative longitudinal aging cohorts (MHAS, HRS, CHARLS, ELSA, CRELES) within the Gateway to Global Aging Data, including adults aged [≥]50 years with [≥]1 HbA1c measurements. Prediabetes was defined per ADA criteria (HbA1c 5.7-6.4%). Functional outcomes included activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental ADL (IADL), and frailty assessed using Fried phenotype, FRAIL scale, and a deficit-accumulation Frailty Index (FI). Mixed-effects Poisson models estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for baseline prediabetes, while generalized estimating equations assessed time-varying glycemic status and transition trajectories. Models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and time-varying covariates, with sensitivity analyses including BMI, smoking, and alcohol intake. Findings: Among 18,571 participants (median follow-up 13.6 years), baseline prediabetes was associated with increased progression of functional deficits and frailty compared with normoglycemia, including higher FI values and accelerated FI progression. Prediabetes was associated with higher incidence of ADL, IADL, and multimorbidity deficits from early follow-up, although time-dependent changes in incidence rates were not significant. In time-varying analyses (n=7,840), both prediabetes and diabetes were associated with higher incidence of functional deficits compared with normoglycemia, with diabetes showing the strongest effects across all outcomes. Diabetes was associated with greater FI burden and accelerated progression, whereas prediabetes showed a smaller increase, with attenuation over time. Among individuals with baseline prediabetes, regression to normoglycemia occurred in 20.8% and was associated with increased incidence of ADL and frailty deficits. In contrast, progression to diabetes occurred in 24.3%, and was associated with lower risk of incident ADL and Fried frailty deficits compared to stable prediabetes. Interpretation: Prediabetes is associated with increased risk of functional decline, frailty, and deficit accumulation in older adults, independent of progression to diabetes. Regression to normoglycemia was associated with higher risk of functional deterioration. These findings suggest that prediabetes reflects a state of metabolic vulnerability linked to biological aging rather than solely a precursor to diabetes and highlights a need to reframe its clinical significance in older populations. Funding: This research was supported by Instituto Nacional de Geriatria in Mexico. Keywords: Prediabetes; Glycemic transitions; Frailty; Functional decline; Aging; Multimorbidity

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Pulse-wave harmonic signatures of cardiovascular regulatory coherence to a cognitive challenge in mild cognitive impairment: a community-based cross-sectional study

Hsiao, K.-Y.

2026-04-27 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.04.24.26351647 medRxiv
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To evaluate whether hemodynamic responses to acute cognitive stress, measured via pulse-wave harmonic analysis, can characterize cardiovascular regulatory coherence and differentiate older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from cognitively intact individuals, this exploratory cross-sectional observational study utilized a within-session pre-post cognitive task design. A total of 101 community-dwelling older adults in southern Taiwan were stratified by Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scores into Reference (MoCA [&ge;]26, n=12, paired n=10), MCI (MoCA 18-25; n=50, paired n=45), and dementia-level (MoCA <18; n=39) groups, the latter being excluded from task-evoked analyses. The primary outcome was the Harmonic Response Consistency Score (HRCS), quantifying the directional uniformity of cardiovascular regulatory responses, alongside secondary measures of harmonic amplitudes (Cn) and phase angles (Pn). Although mean pre-post changes were subtle, response organization differed by cognitive status. The Reference group exhibited high response consistency (mean HRCS = 9.00), characterized by coordinated harmonic down-modulation. Conversely, the MCI group showed attenuated, directionally heterogeneous responses. Compared to the Reference group, the MCI group demonstrated significantly lower HRCS values for the Cn domain (Mean difference: 2.60, 95% CI 0.29-4.91; p=0.020) and PnSD domain (Mean difference: 1.98, 95% CI 0.04-3.92; p=0.030), indicating a breakdown in regulatory coherence. These findings suggest that acute cognitive stimulus reveals coherent harmonic down-modulation in cognitively intact older adults but fragmented responses in MCI. Pulse-harmonic profiling thus serves as a robust physiological index of cardiovascular regulatory coherence, which, when integrated with neuropsychological assessments, may enhance the sensitivity of non-invasive, community-based screening frameworks for early cognitive aging.

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Assessing medication-related burden and medication adherence among older patients from Central Nepal: A machine learning approach

Giri, R.; Agrawal, R.; Lamichhane, S. R.; Barma, S.; Mahatara, R.

2026-04-23 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351447 medRxiv
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We are pleased to submit our Original article entitled "Assessing medication-related burden and medication adherence among older patients from Central Nepal: A machine learning approach" for consideration in your esteemed journal. In this paper, we assessed medication burden using validated Living with medicines Questionnaire (LMQ-3) and medication adherence using Adherence to Medication refills (ARMS) Scale. In this paper we analysed our result through machine learning approach in spite of traditional statistical approach to identify the complex factors influencing both. Six ML architectures (Ordinary Least Square, LightGBM, Random Forest, XGBoost, SVM, and Penalized linear regression) were employed to predict ARMS and LMQ scores using various socio-demographic, clinical and medication-related predictive features. Model explainability was provided through SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations). Our study identified the moderate medication burden with moderate non-adherence among older adults. Requiring assistance for medication and polypharmacy were the strongest drivers for the medication burden and non-adherence. The high predictive accuracy by ML suggests the appropriate clinical intervention like deprescribing to cope with the high prevalent medication burden and non-adherence among older adults in Nepal.

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Improving Care by FAster risk-STratification through use of high sensitivity point-of-care troponin in patients presenting with possible acute coronary syndrome in the EmeRgency department (ICare-FASTER): a stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial

Than, M.; Pickering, J. W.; Joyce, L. R.; Buchan, V. A.; Florkowski, C. M.; Mills, N. L.; Hamill, L.; Prystowsky, J.; Harger, S.; Reed, M.; Bayless, J.; Feberwee, A.; Attenburrow, T.; Norman, T.; Welfare, O.; Heiden, T.; Kavsak, P.; Jaffe, A. S.; apple, f.; Peacock, W. F.; Cullen, L.; Aldous, S.; Richards, A. M.; Lacey, C.; Troughton, R.; Frampton, C.; Body, R.; Mueller, C.; Lord, S. J.; George, P. M.; Devlin, G.

2026-04-23 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351433 medRxiv
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BACKGROUND Point-of-care (POC) high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) testing has the potential to expedite decision-making and reduce emergency department (ED) length of stay for patients presenting with possible myocardial infarction (MI) by ensuring that results are consistently available when looked for by clinicians. We assessed the real-life effectiveness and safety of implementing POC hs-cTn testing in the ED. METHODS We conducted a pragmatic, stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial. The control arm was usual care with an accelerated diagnostic pathway utilizing a single-sample rule-out step with a central laboratory hs-cTn assay. The intervention arm used the same pathway with a POC hs-cTnI. The primary effectiveness outcome was ED length of stay assessed using a generalized linear mixed model, and the safety outcome was 30-day MI or cardiac death. RESULTS Six sites participated with 59,980 ED presentations (44,747 individuals, 61{+/-}19 years, 49.5% female) from February 2023 to January 2025, in which 31,392 presentations were during the intervention arm. After adjustment for co-variates associated with length of stay, the intervention reduced length of stay by 13% (95% confidence intervals [CI], 9 to 16%. P<0.001), corresponding to a reduction of 47 minutes (95%CI, 33 to 61 minutes) from a mean length of stay in the control arm of 376 minutes. The 30-day MI or cardiac death rate was similar in the control and intervention arms (0.39% and 0.39% respectively, P=0.54). CONCLUSIONS Implementation of whole-blood hs-cTnI testing at the POC into an accelerated diagnostic pathway was safe and reduced length of stay in the ED compared with laboratory testing.

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Comparative Effectiveness of TTR Stabilizers for the Treatment of ATTR-CM Using Real-World Evidence

Wright, R.; Martyn, T.; Keshishian, A.; Nagelhout, E.; Zeldow, B.; Udall, M.; Lanfear, D.; Judge, D. P.

2026-04-27 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.24.26351684 medRxiv
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Background: Progression of transthyretin (TTR) amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) can lead to worsening congestion requiring diuretic intensification (DI), heart failure (HF)-related hospitalizations (HFH), and death. Tafamidis was the only approved ATTR-CM therapy in the US from 2019 until the 2024 approval of acoramidis, which achieves near-complete ([&ge;]90%) TTR stabilization. As head-to-head trials are lacking, real-world comparative effectiveness (CE) data are needed to guide treatment selection. Objective: To evaluate real-world CE of acoramidis versus tafamidis in newly treated patients with ATTR-CM. Methods: Retrospective study using Komodo Healthcare Map (R) US claims data tokenized to Claritas. Patients newly initiating acoramidis or tafamidis between 12/11/2024 and 04/30/2025 with [&ge;]1 prescription claim (first defined as index date) and [&ge;]6 months of continuous enrollment preindex date were included and followed until disenrollment, death, treatment switch, or study end date (07/31/2025). Outcomes included DI (initiation or dose-equivalent escalation of oral loop diuretics, parenteral loop diuretic use, or addition of thiazide-like diuretic) and a composite of DI, HFH (inpatient admission with a HF-related ICD-10-CM diagnosis code in any position), and mortality. Propensity score weighting balanced baseline characteristics, disease severity, comorbidity burden, and baseline medication use. Time-to-event outcomes were assessed using weighted Cox proportional hazards models. Results: After weighting, acoramidis (n=170) and tafamidis (weighted sample size=448) patients were comparable at baseline (mean age, 78.6 vs 78.7 years; male, 80.0% vs 80.2%) with mean follow-up of 139 and 143 days, respectively. DI cumulative incidence curves separated early and remained divergent, with acoramidis significantly reducing the hazard of DI events by 43% compared with tafamidis (11.8% vs 20.5%; HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.35-0.92; P=0.021). Acoramidis also had a significantly lower risk of composite events, with a 34% reduction in hazard compared with tafamidis (17.6% vs 26.4%; HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.44-0.99; P=0.046). Conclusions: In this first real-world CE study of newly treated patients, acoramidis had significantly lower risk of DI events and composite events of DI, HFH, and mortality than tafamidis, potentially supporting improved clinical stability with acoramidis initiation. Additional evaluation with longer follow-up, larger cohorts, and/or prospective clinical outcomes is warranted.

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Development and Evaluation of iSupport-Malaysia: A Multimedia Web-Based Psychoeducational Intervention for Dementia Caregivers

Loh, K. J.; Lee, W. L.; Ng, A. L. O.; Chung, F. F. L.; Renganathan, E.

2026-04-21 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.04.14.26350743 medRxiv
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BackgroundCaring for people with dementia can impose a considerable psychological burden on caregivers, yet access to caregiver support in Malaysia remains limited. The World Health Organizations iSupport for Dementia program provides dementia education via textual, e-learning format. However, a culturally adapted Malaysian version has not been available. ObjectiveThis study aimed to develop and gather user feedback on a culturally adapted, multimedia version of iSupport tailored for Malaysia (iSupport-Malaysia). MethodsGuided by a four-phase cultural adaptation framework, the generic iSupport content was translated into Bahasa Malaysia, adapted to local customs, and transformed into multimedia lessons on an e-learning platform. A mixed-methods design was used to explore user perceptions and evaluate usability through four homogeneous focus group discussions and 15 individual usability test sessions with informal caregivers (FG: n=9; UT: n=9) and healthcare professionals (FG: n=11; UT: n=6). Focus groups examined aesthetics, ease of use, clarity, cultural relevance, comprehensiveness, and satisfaction. Usability testing involved Think Aloud tasks, post-test questionnaires, and brief interviews. Qualitative data was analysed thematically, and descriptive statistics summarised usability performance. ResultsiSupport-Malaysia demonstrated good usability (M=74.3{+/-}18.0), with most tasks completed without assistance. Strengths included interactive learning activities, peer discussion features, and flexible self-paced learning. Content was viewed as culturally appropriate, credible, and useful. Suggested improvements included enhancing visual aesthetics, shortening videos, refining quizzes, and increasing practical relevance. ConclusionUser insights indicate that iSupport-Malaysia is usable and culturally appropriate. These findings will inform refinement of the platform prior to the pilot feasibility study and provide recommendations for future multimedia-based caregiver interventions.

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Addition of Bupropion or Varenicline to Nicotine Replacement Therapy After Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Propensity-Matched Real-World Analysis

Qadeer, A.; Gohar, N.; Maniyar, P.; Shafi, N.; Juarez, L. M.; Mortada, I.; Pack, Q. R.; Jneid, H.; Gaalema, D. E.

2026-04-23 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351432 medRxiv
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Introduction: Smoking cessation after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a Class I recommendation, yet prescription pharmacotherapy use remains low and its real-world cardiovascular effectiveness when added to nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) is poorly characterized. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the TriNetX US Collaborative Network (67 healthcare organizations). Adults hospitalized with ACS who received NRT within one month, serving as a proxy for active smoking status, were identified. Two co-primary propensity-matched (1:1, 50 covariates, caliper 0.10 SD) comparisons evaluated bupropion + NRT and varenicline + NRT individually versus NRT alone; a supportive analysis evaluated combined pharmacotherapy versus NRT alone. All-cause mortality was the primary endpoint. Secondary outcomes included MACE, heart failure exacerbations, major bleeding, TIA/stroke, emergency rehospitalizations, and cardiac rehabilitation utilization, assessed at 6 months and 1 year via Kaplan-Meier analysis. Hazard ratios (HRs) greater than 1.0 indicate higher hazard in the NRT-only group. Results: After matching, the combined analysis comprised 8,574 pairs, the bupropion analysis 4,654 pairs, and the varenicline analysis 2,126 pairs. At 1 year, the combined pharmacotherapy group had significantly lower all-cause mortality (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.16-1.37), MACE (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.12-1.21), heart failure exacerbations (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.08-1.25), major bleeding (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.08-1.28), and greater cardiac rehabilitation utilization (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.74-0.92; all p < 0.001). TIA/stroke did not differ significantly. Six-month results were consistent. Both varenicline and bupropion individually showed lower mortality and MACE. A urinary tract infection falsification endpoint showed no between-group differences, supporting matching validity. The pharmacotherapy group had higher rates of new-onset depression, driven predominantly by bupropion recipients. Conclusions: In this propensity-matched real-world analysis, adding prescription smoking cessation pharmacotherapy to NRT after ACS was associated with lower mortality and fewer adverse cardiovascular events, supporting broader integration into post-ACS care pathways.

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Inequality in healthy lifespan following surgery: a longitudinal population study

Wan, Y. I.; Pearse, R. M.; Prowle, J. R.

2026-04-27 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.25.26351729 medRxiv
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Background Surgery is a widely used treatment option but the impact of surgery on long-term disease across socioeconomic groups is unknown. Methods Longitudinal population study using linked primary and secondary care data describing adults ([&ge;]18 years) in England recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) between 1st January 2012 and 31st December 2021. Socioeconomic deprivation was defined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). The exposure was surgery and primary outcome was long-term disease. Data are presented as n (%), median (IQR), and adjusted hazards ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals. Findings Of 18,329,659 people, 8,951,145 (48.8%) underwent surgery. 78.6% of index surgeries were elective (n=7,032,475), 21.4% were emergency (n=1,918,670). Amongst surgical patients, 4,741,188 (52.0%) were women, 3,540,136 (39.6%) from the most deprived deciles (IMD 1-4) and 994,595 (11.1%) from a minority ethnic group. Age-standardised rates of surgery were higher in deprived individuals (comparative rate ratio IMD 1 vs. IMD 10 elective: 1.11 (95% CI 1.11-1.11), emergency: 1.54 (1.54-1.54)). Age at first surgery was 42 (27-60) years for elective and 42 (25-65) years for emergency surgery overall, but lower for people from IMD 1-4 (elective: 39 (26-57) years, emergency: 38 (24-60) years). Rates of long-term disease increased following both elective (baseline 19.6%, three years 24.5%) and emergency surgery (baseline 10.3%, three years 12.3%). Risk of new long-term disease following surgery increased with increasing levels of deprivation (IMD 1 vs. IMD 10 elective: HR 1.46 (1.45-1.48), emergency: HR 1.46 (1.44-1.48)). Interpretation Surgical treatment is strongly associated with the onset of long-term disease and factors which limit healthy life expectancy. Surgery occurs at a younger age among socioeconomically deprived groups and may be linked to health inequalities. Similar but more complex patterns of inequality were seen in minority ethnic groups. Funding Barts Charity and UK Academy of Medical Sciences.

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CPAP/BiPAP Compliance Improves Survival in LVAD Recipients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea

Carlquist, J.; Scott, S. S.; Wright, J. C.; Jianing, M.; Peng, J.; Mokadam, N. A.; Whitson, B. A.; Smith, S.

2026-04-22 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351345 medRxiv
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PurposeObstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common comorbidity in heart failure (HF) patients with prevalence increasing as HF severity worsens. While CPAP/BiPAP has been shown to reduce disease burden and mortality in the general HF population, it is unclear whether these benefits extend to patients with left ventricular assist devices (LVADs). We sought to determine whether OSA affects long-term survival in newly implanted LVAD patients and whether CPAP/BiPAP treatment confers mortality benefits. MethodsThis single-center retrospective study included patients who underwent LVAD implantation between January 2007 and February 2022. Recipients were stratified by OSA status (OSA vs No-OSA), and those with OSA were further categorized based on CPAP/BiPAP compliance. Comparative statistics and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed, with log-rank tests used to compare groups and assess survival differences. A Cox proportional hazards model was conducted to evaluate the association between risk factors and survival among patients with OSA and No-OSA. ResultsBefore LVAD implantation, patients with OSA had higher body mass index, hypertension, and a higher rate of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator placement than those without OSA. OSA was not associated with increased postoperative complications. Although survival did not differ significantly between OSA and No-OSA patients (p=0.33), CPAP/BiPAP-compliant OSA patients had significantly better survival than noncompliant patients (p=0.0099). ConclusionsLVAD patients with OSA who consistently use CPAP/BiPAP have better survival than those who do not. CPAP/BiPAP is a simple, low-risk treatment that can reduce mortality in this population. Therefore, increased perioperative screening for OSA should be considered for patients receiving LVADs. Multicenter studies are needed to confirm our findings further.

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Impact of acute hospitalisation on development of long-term disease and health inequality: a longitudinal population study

Wan, Y. I.; Pearse, R. M.; Prowle, J. R.

2026-04-27 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.25.26351727 medRxiv
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Objective To examine the impact of acute illness on long-term health and describe any differences in these associations between socioeconomic and ethnic groups. Design Longitudinal population study. Setting Linked primary and secondary care data recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Participants Adults ([&ge;]18 years) residing in England registered with a primary care general practice (GP) between 1st January 2012 and 31st December 2022 who have not opted out of inclusion into CPRD and linked data sources. Socioeconomic deprivation was defined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and ethnicity by UK census 2011 definitions. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was new long-term disease and multimorbidity (two or more long-term diseases). We describe incidence of hospitalisation for acute illness as the exposure. Results We included 18,329,659 people, with 9,339,394 (51.0%) women, 7,430,555 (40.5%) people from the most deprived deciles (IMD 1-4) and 3,009,717 (16.4%) from a minority ethnic group. 6,038,272 (32.9%) people experienced hospitalisation for acute illness. Hospitalisation was associated with increased onset of long-term disease in those alive at the end of follow up (41.1% hospitalised vs 18.7% not hospitalised; adjusted HR 2.48 (2.47 to 2.48)). Compared to non-hospitalised, those who had been hospitalised were more likely to change from being disease free at baseline to having a new long-term disease (12.9% vs. 7.5%), develop multimorbidity (4.7% vs. 1.1%), or transition to multimorbidity if they had pre-existing disease (8.1% vs. 1.8%). Age-standardised hospitalisation rates were highest in the most deprived decile and in people with Black ethnicity. Comparative hospitalisation ratio for IMD 1 compared to IMD 10 ranging from 1.78 in 2018 to 1.96 in 2021 and for Black ethnicity compared to White ranging from 1.03 in 2017 to 1.08 in 2021. Conclusions Acute hospitalisation is a key stage in the development of long-term disease and may be an underutilised opportunity for intervention to change healthy life trajectory and reduce health inequality.

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Missed Opportunities for Stroke Prevention in Hypertensive Patients: A Retrospective Case-Control Study

Yang, H.; Liu, Y.; Kim, C.; Huang, C.; Sawano, M.; Young, P.; McPadden, J.; Anderson, M.; Burrows, J. S.; Krumholz, H. M.; Brush, J. E.; Lu, Y.

2026-04-22 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351407 medRxiv
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BackgroundHypertension is the leading modifiable risk factor for ischemic stroke, yet the adequacy of preventative hypertension care in routine clinical practice remains suboptimal. Whether gaps in hypertension management represent missed opportunities for stroke prevention remains unclear. ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between hypertension care delivery and the risk of incident ischemic stroke. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective, matched, nested case-control study among adults with hypertension using electronic health record data from a large regional health system (2010-2024). Patients with a first-ever ischemic stroke were matched 1:2 to controls on age, sex, race and ethnicity, and calendar time. Three care metrics were assessed during follow-up: (1) outpatient visits with blood pressure (BP) measurement per year; (2) number of antihypertensive medication ingredients; and (3) medication intensification score. Conditional logistic regression estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs). ResultsThe study included 13,476 cases and 26,952 matched controls (N = 40,428). Mean (SD) age was 64.8 (12.2) years, 54.1% were female, and mean follow-up was 2,497 (1,308) days. Cases had fewer BP visits per year (median, 2.50 vs. 3.01; p < 0.001), similar number of medication ingredients (2.00 vs 2.00), and lower treatment intensification scores (-0.211 vs - 0.125). In adjusted models, >5 BP visits per year was associated with lower stroke odds (aOR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.51-0.59) compared with [&le;]1 visit. Use of 2-3 medication ingredients (vs 0) was also associated with reduced stroke odds (aOR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75-0.86), whereas >3 ingredients was not significant. The highest quartile of treatment intensification showed the strongest association (aOR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.44-0.51). Findings were consistent across subgroup and sensitivity analyses, including strata defined by baseline SBP and follow-up SBP. ConclusionsGreater engagement in hypertension care was associated with lower odds of ischemic stroke, suggesting that gaps in routine management may represent missed opportunities for prevention.

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Interleukin-1 Receptor Antagonist Levels In Patients With Heart Failure And Reduced Ejection Fraction Treated With Anakinra

Kelly, J.; Mezzaroma, E.; Roscioni, A.; McSkimming, C.; Mauro, A.; Narayan, P.; Golino, M.; Trankle, C.; Canada, J. M.; Toldo, S.; Van Tassell, B. W.; Abbate, A.

2026-04-25 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351024 medRxiv
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Background. Patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) commonly show signs of systemic inflammation. Interleukin-1 (IL-1) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine, known to modulate cardiac function. We aimed to determine the effects of treatment with anakinra, recombinant IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra), on plasma IL-1Ra levels. Methods. We measured IL-1Ra levels at baseline and longest available follow-up to 24 weeks in 63 patients (44 males, 40 self-identified Black-Americans) with recent hospitalization for HFrEF, and systemic inflammation (C reactive protein [CRP] levels >2 mg/L) who were assigned to anakinra (N=42 [66.7%]) or placebo (N=21 [33.3%]) as part of the REDHART2 clinical trial (NCT0014686). Cardiorespiratory fitness was measured as peak oxygen consumption (peak VO2). Results. Baseline plasma IL-1Ra levels were 380 pg/ml (290 to 1046). On-treatment IL-1Ra levels were significantly higher in the patients treated with anakinra vs placebo (3,994 pg/ml [3,372 to 5,000] vs 492 pg/ml [304 to 1370], P<0.001). The longest available follow-up was 6 weeks in 10 patients (15.9%), 12 weeks in 12 patients (19%) and 24 weeks in 41 patients (65.1%). On-treatment IL-1Ra levels and interval change in IL-1Ra showed a modest inverse correlation with on-treatment CRP levels (R=-0.269, P=0.033 and R=-0.355, P=0.004, respectively) and no statistically significant correlations with peak VO2 values (P>0.05). Conclusions. Patients with recently decompensated HFrEF and systemic inflammation treated with recombinant IL-1Ra, anakinra, have a significant several-fold increase in plasma IL-1Ra levels. On-treatment IL-1Ra levels however show only a modest correlation with CRP levels and not with peak VO2.

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Educational Inequalities in Well-Being in Later Life in Germany: The Role of Health Behaviours and Health Literacy

Franzese, F.; Bergmann, M.; Burzynska, A.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351388 medRxiv
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Socioeconomic inequalities in health and well-being are a major public health concern, particularly in ageing populations. Education is a key determinant shaping multiple aspects of health outcomes. We used cross-sectional data from wave 9 of the German sample (n=4,148) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to test whether formal education is associated with well-being in later adulthood, with health literacy, self-rated health, and preventive health behaviours as possible mediators. Our results showed that education was positively associated with greater well-being, but only via indirect pathways. Specifically, self-rated health, health literacy, and fruit and vegetable consumption mediated the relationship between education and well-being accounting for 54.7, 24.7, and 12.6 percent of the total effect, respectively. In addition, there were significant positive correlations between education and health literacy, as well as high-intensity physical activity, daily fruit and vegetable consumption, more preventive health check-ups, and less smoking. In contrast, alcohol consumption was more common among those with higher levels of education. All health behaviours and health literacy were correlated directly or indirectly (i.e., mediated by health) with well-being. These findings highlight the importance of examining indirect pathways linking education to well-being in later life. Interventions aimed at improving health literacy and promoting healthy behaviours may help reduce educational inequalities in quality of life among older adults.

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Central Adiposity And Infective Endocarditis: A Cohort Study of UK Biobank Participants

Song, W.; Zhang, J.; Zhipeng, W.; Sun, P.; Ke, Z.; Chenzhen, X.; chuanjie, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Li, L.; He, L.; Yu, J.; Lai, Y.; Cui, H.; Ren, C.

2026-04-24 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351534 medRxiv
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Abstract Aims: While traditional anthropometric indices are established cardiovascular predictors, their prognostic value for incident infective endocarditis (IE) remains undefined. Methods: We included 386,859 participants (mean age 57.0 years; 52.9% female) from the UK Biobank between 2006 and 2010 with standardized baseline data on BMI, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WhtR), and the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index.Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models with restricted cubic splines were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of these indices, adjusting for demographic and clinical risk factors. Results: Over 16.87 median years (25th, 16.02; 75th, 17.60 percentile) of follow-up, there were a total of 1,124 incident IE events. During the follow-up period, 38,342 total deaths were recorded, of which 8,524 were cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related.Overall, compared to individuals with normal weight and baseline metabolic indices, those in the fourth quartile of WC, WHtR, and TyG index exhibited the highest risk of incident IE. Compared to other metabolic indices, WC (HR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.23?1.90,P < 0.001) and WHtR (HR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.20?1.78,P < 0.001) demonstrated higher relative increases in risk associated with IE. Furthermore, the risk of IE was significantly elevated among the younger population with abdominal obesity and concomitant diabetes. However, no significant increase in IE risk was observed among participants with pre-existing valvular heart disease (P = 0.796). Conclusion: Compared with BMI, higher WC and WHtR were robustly associated with increased risk of IE, even after adjusting for traditional risk factors. Furthermore, the risk of IE was markedly elevated among younger individuals with abdominal obesity and diabetes.

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Persistent Atrial Myopathy Despite Ventricular Recovery: Prognostic Significance of Discordant LV-LA Strain Patterns in HFrEF

Park, J.; Hwang, I.-C.; Kim, H.-K.; Bae, N. Y.; Lim, J.; Kwak, S.; Bak, M.; Choi, H.-M.; Park, J.-B.; Yoon, Y. E.; Lee, S. P.; Kim, Y.-J.; Cho, G.-Y.

2026-04-23 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351480 medRxiv
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Aims: Assessment of treatment response in HFrEF has largely relied on left ventricular (LV)-centric parameters, yet the left atrium (LA) plays a central role in modulating LV filling and reflects the cumulative hemodynamic burden. Whether discordant recovery between LV and LA function carries distinct prognostic implications in patients treated with ARNI-based therapy remains unknown. Methods and results: From the multicenter STRATS-HF-ARNI registry, 1,182 patients with HFrEF who underwent serial echocardiography at baseline and one-year follow-up were included. Patients were classified into four strain recovery phenotypes according to the direction of change in LVGLS and LASr at one year: Group A, concordant recovery (57.4%); Group B, discordant atrial non-recovery (11.2%); Group C, discordant ventricular non-recovery (15.6%); and Group D, concordant non-recovery (16.0%). Clinical outcomes included all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and HF hospitalization. Despite achieving LV functional improvement, Group B exhibited persistent LASr deterioration, accompanied by less favorable hemodynamic trajectories compared with Group A. On multivariable Cox regression, Group B was associated with significantly higher risks of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.60-7.79) and cardiovascular mortality (aHR 5.68, 95% CI 1.91-16.92), comparable to Group D. Group C demonstrated higher HF hospitalization risk (aHR 2.25, 95% CI 1.31-3.86). The adverse prognostic impact of discordant atrial non-recovery was consistently observed across subgroups stratified by baseline LVGLS and LASr levels. Conclusion: In HFrEF patients treated with ARNI-based therapy, persistent LA dysfunction despite LV functional improvement identifies a high-risk phenotype comparable to concordant non-recovery. These findings suggest that concurrent assessment of LV and LA strain may provide incremental prognostic value beyond LV-centric metrics alone.

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Racioethnic Disparities in Risk of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors and Cardiovascular Disease among Women Treated for Breast Cancer: The Pathways Heart Study

Yao, S.; Zimbalist, A.; Sheng, H.; Fiorica, P.; Cheng, R.; Medicino, L.; Omilian, A.; Zhu, Q.; Roh, J.; Laurent, C.; Lee, V.; Ergas, I.; Iribarren, C.; Rana, J.; Nguyen-Huynh, M.; Rillamas-Sun, E.; Hershman, D.; Ambrosone, C.; Kushi, L.; Greenlee, H.; Kwan, M.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351612 medRxiv
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Background: Few studies have examined racioethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women after breast cancer treatment, who are at higher risk due to cardiotoxic cancer treatment. Methods: Based on the Pathways Heart Study of women with a history of breast cancer, this analysis examines the association between cardiometabolic risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia) and CVD events with self-reported race and ethnicity, as well as genetic similarity. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to test race and ethnicity and genetic similarity with prevalent and incident cardiometabolic risk factors and CVD events. Results: Of the 4,071 patients in this analysis, non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Asian, and Hispanic women were more likely to have prevalent and incident diabetes than non-Hispanic White (NHW) women. Analysis of genetic similarity revealed results consistent with self-reported race and ethnicity. For CVD risk, NHB women were more likely to develop heart failure and cardiomyopathy than NHW women. In contrast, Hispanic women were at lower risk of any incident CVD, serious CVD, arrhythmia, heart failure or cardiomyopathy, and ischemic heart disease, which was consistent with the associations found with Native American ancestry. Conclusions: This is the largest multi-ethnic study of disparities in CVD health in breast cancer survivors, demonstrating corroborating findings between self-reported race and ethnicity and genetic similarity. The results highlight disparities in cardiometabolic risk factors and CVD among breast cancer survivors that warrant more research and clinical attention in these distinct, high-risk populations.

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Sex-specific trends in incident stroke: The Framingham Heart Study

Ekenze, O.; Scott, M. R.; Himali, D.; Lioutas, V.-A.; Seshadri, S.; Howard, V. J.; Fornage, M.; Aparicio, H. J.; Beiser, A. S.; Romero, J. R.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351536 medRxiv
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Sex specific differences in stroke are recognized. Whether differences in incident stroke risk persists in recent periods needs further elucidation to aid public health preventive efforts. Aim: To determine long-term sex specific trends in stroke and stroke risk factors at different epochs among Framingham Heart Study participants. Methods: We examined age-adjusted 10-year stroke incidence using Cox regression in women and men in five epochs: 1962-1969 (epoch 1, reference), 1971-1976 (epoch 2), 1987-1991 (epoch 3), 1998-2005 (epoch 4), 2015-2021 (epoch 5). We compared stroke incidence by sex across epochs, estimated decade-wise linear trends overall and by sex. We compared risk factors in successive epochs to the first, and estimated sex-specific trends in risk factors. Interactions between baseline risk factors with epoch and trends were assessed by sex. Secondary analyses were repeated in participants <60 years old. Results: Incident stroke occurred in 4.5% (178/3996) in epoch 1, 3.9% (227/5786) in epoch 2, 3.9% (199/5137) in epoch 3, 2.7% (207/7642) in epoch 4, 2.2% (119/5534) in epoch 5. Men had higher risk of incident stroke in each epoch with significant difference in epochs 2 (HR 1.41, 95% CI [1.08, 1.84]) and 4 (HR 1.46, 95% CI [1.11, 1.91]) overall, and in epoch 4 (HR 2.13, 95% CI [1.17, 3.87]) among those <60 years. Stroke incidence declined by 16% per decade in men (HR 0.84, 95% CI [0.79, 0.89]) and 19% per decade in women (HR 0.81, 95% CI [0.76, 0.86]). Among those <60 years, stroke incidence declined by 22% per decade in women (HR 0.78, 95% CI [0.67, 0.95]). Hypertension declined by 8% per decade in women only ([OR] 0.92, 95% CI [0.90, 0.94]), while Atrial fibrillation and diabetes increased in both. Conclusion: Stroke incidence continues to decline in recent periods for women and men. Among participants <60 years, decline was observed only in women, possibly related to decline in hypertension in women.

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Exposome-Based Clustering of Urinary VOC and PAH Biomarkers Reveals Racially Patterned Cardiovascular Risk in a Nationally Representative US Cohort: A Machine Learning Analysis of NHANES 2017-2018

Anthonio, O. G.; Olowu, B. I.; Olawuyi, D. A.; Aderemi, T. V.; Ajayi, O. J.

2026-04-27 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.19.26351113 medRxiv
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Background Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are combustion-derived pollutants linked to cardiovascular disease. Prior NHANES analyses have evaluated these chemicals individually, failing to capture the correlated co-exposure structures that characterize real-world environmental burden, thereby underscoring the need for application. In this study, we applied an unsupervised machine learning pipeline to urinary biomarker data to identify multi-chemical exposure clusters and quantify their differential cardiovascular risk profiles in a nationally representative US sample. Methods We analyzed 2,979 participants from NHANES between 2017-2018, representing an estimated 36.8 million US adults after complex survey weighting. Twenty-five urinary biomarkers (6 PAH, 19 VOC metabolites) were log-transformed, imputed using Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), and standardized. Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) was used for dimensionality reduction, followed by Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) clustering. Survey-weighted prevalence estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for hypertension and high total cholesterol within each cluster. Weighted multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) for hypertension, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and income. Results Four exposure clusters were identified with a mean assignment probability of 0.948. The High combustion cluster (n=370; estimated 5.1 million US adults) exhibited the highest multi-chemical burden and a weighted hypertension prevalence of 39.3% (95% CI 37.2-41.4%), compared to 28.7% (95% CI 21.9-35.5%) in the Low exposure reference group. After demographic adjustment, High combustion cluster membership was independently associated with 38.4% higher odds of prevalent hypertension (OR 1.38). The prediction model achieved a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.849 (SD 0.017). Non-Hispanic Black participants constituted approximately 40% of the High combustion cluster, exceeding their representation in lower-risk clusters. Conclusions Multi-chemical exposome profiling identifies four cardiovascularly distinct subpopulations in the US adult population. Membership in the High combustion exposure cluster was associated with higher odds of prevalent hypertension and disproportionately affected Non-Hispanic Black participants. These findings support the use of multichemical approaches over single-pollutant analyses and highlight the relevance of environmental exposure patterns for making policy and targeted cardiovascular risk stratification.

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The Immunoglobulin G Glycome: A Modifiable Biomarker and Functional Effector of Aging, Disease, and Mortality

Mijakovac, A.; Butz, E.; Vuckovic, F.; Frkatovic Hodzic, A.; Rapcan, B.; Kifer, D.; Deris, H.; Radovani Trbojevic, B.; Luksic, F.; Cindric, A.; Gudelj, I.; simunic Briski, N.; Josipovic, G.; Stara Yuksel, Z.; catic, J.; saler, F.; Szavits-Nossan, J.; Hedin, C. R. H.; simunovic, J.; Borosak, I.; Kristic, J.; Monteiro-Martins, S.; Pribic, T.; Hanic, M.; Pucic-Bakovic, M.; Trbojevic-Akmacic, I.; stambuk, T.; stambuk, J.; Martinic Kavur, M.; Fancovic, M.; Cvetko, A.; Pezer, M.; Polasek, O.; Gornik, O.; Kiprov, D.; Verdin, E.; Younggren, B.; Newson, L.; Menni, C.; Steves, C. J.; Spector, T. D.; Hal

2026-04-23 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351390 medRxiv
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Glycosylation is a key structural modification of immunoglobulin G (IgG) that modulates its effector functions and has multiple roles in balancing inflammation. Altered IgG glycosylation has been reported in many diseases, often years before clinical manifestation, suggesting its causal role and biomarker potential. Here, we analyzed IgG glycome composition in 20,405 individuals from 42 different studies processed at the Genos Glycoscience Research Laboratory between 2008 and 2025. Across nearly all diseases, specific IgG glycome profiles reflected accelerated biological aging. Accelerated glycan aging was strongly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, independent of established clinical risk factors and potential confounders. Moreover, interventions known to reduce mortality risk, including hormone replacement therapy, therapeutic plasma exchange and caloric restriction, were associated with reversal of glycan aging. Given their role in modulating low-grade systemic inflammation, IgG glycans may represent a functional link between chronic inflammation, aging, disease susceptibility and all-cause mortality.

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Fentanyl Purity and Overdose Decline: A Reexamination of Geographic Trends

Dasgupta, N.; Sibley, A. L.; Gildner, P.; Gora Combs, K.; Post, L. A.; Tobias, S.; Kral, A. H.; Pacula, R. L.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351605 medRxiv
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Drug overdose deaths in the United States reached record levels during the fentanyl era before recently declining. A plausible hypothesis is that a sudden drop in fentanyl purity beginning in 2023 caused the downturn in overdose mortality. We evaluated this hypothesis by replicating a published analysis with regional overdose data, using models that account for time trends and autocorrelation, and negative control indicators to test for spurious correlation. When fentanyl purity was rising, the national purity series did not track overdose increases in most regions and showed only a modest association in the West. When both purity and mortality later declined, the observed associations were also seen with unrelated macroeconomic indicators that shared the same time pattern. National fentanyl purity alone does not provide a sufficient explanation for recent overdose declines.